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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 2nd 2025

September 2, 2025 by Scott Hill

With the release of the PCE Index, inflation has shown to still be creeping upwards but there is significant speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue with their interest rate cut in the future. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment report has been growing pessimistic amidst the job market, which has been shown to be in a pattern of cooling down.

This is offset by the strong growth by the GDP estimates for the second quarter, as it was initially predicted the tariff changes would have a significant impact on the GDP estimates, but the impact has been less prominent than expected.

PCE Index
A key measure of inflation rose in July at a rate that suggests persistent price pressures tied to higher U.S. tariffs, but the increase probably wasn’t big enough to dissuade the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next month. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumers’ views of the labor market cooled further in August, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Roughly 20% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get” in August, up from 18.9% in the prior month.

GDP Estimates Q2
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2 2025, a sharp rebound from the 0.5% contraction in Q1, according to second estimates. The figure was revised slightly higher from the first estimate of 3%, mainly due to upward revisions to investment (5.7% vs 1.9% in the first estimate) and consumer spending (1.6% vs 1.4% in the first estimate) that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending (-0.2% vs 0.4% in the first estimate) and an upward revision to imports (-29.8% vs -30.3% in the first estimate). 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw no change for this week, with the current rate at 5.69%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, with the current rate at 6.56%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.06%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.08%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 234,000.

What’s Ahead
Trade Balance will be the most notable release next week indicating the impact of tariffs, followed up by the Nonfarm Payrolls and employment data. Manufacturing PMI and Beige book will offer a backdrop of information.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

Happy Labor Day!

September 1, 2025 by Scott Hill

Today we celebrate the hard work, dedication, and dreams of so many families. Labor Day is more than just a day off, it is a reminder of why we work hard: to create a life we love and a place we are proud to call home.

Whether you are grilling in the backyard, relaxing with family, or simply enjoying some well-deserved rest, take a moment to appreciate the home you have built, or the one you are dreaming about.

As a mortgage professional, I know firsthand that a home is not just about four walls, it is about security, comfort, and a space to recharge after all your hard work.

Wishing you a safe and restful Labor Day!

 

Filed Under: Holidays Tagged With: HomeSweetHome, LaborDay, MortgageMadeSimple

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Mortgage Decisions

August 29, 2025 by Scott Hill

Artificial intelligence is transforming the mortgage industry. Lenders now use AI to analyze applications, assess risk, and make decisions faster than ever. This technology helps streamline underwriting, reduces human error, and allows mortgage originators to focus on providing personalized guidance. AI is not replacing professionals but enhancing their ability to serve clients efficiently and accurately.

How Algorithms Assess Your Loan: AI algorithms review large amounts of data quickly. They consider credit scores, income, debt, employment history, and other factors to determine loan eligibility. Machine learning helps the system improve over time, recognizing patterns and predicting outcomes with increasing accuracy. Borrowers benefit from faster approvals, consistent evaluations, and fewer delays in the mortgage process.

Speed and Efficiency for Homebuyers: One of the biggest advantages of AI underwriting is speed. Traditional mortgage approvals can take weeks. AI tools can analyze applications in hours or even minutes. This allows buyers to receive pre-approval faster, giving them a competitive edge in a hot housing market. Efficient processing reduces stress, helps buyers make timely offers, and keeps the homebuying process moving smoothly.

Maintaining Accuracy and Fairness: AI helps reduce errors that can occur in manual underwriting. By using data-driven evaluations, lenders can identify potential risks without bias or oversight. Many systems are designed to flag inconsistencies while maintaining compliance with fair lending laws. Borrowers gain confidence knowing their application is reviewed objectively and thoroughly.

The Role of Mortgage Originators in an AI World: AI does not replace the human touch. Mortgage originators remain essential for explaining loan options, advising on credit improvement, and guiding buyers through the process. By combining AI insights with expert knowledge, originators ensure clients receive both accurate assessments and personalized support. Technology enhances, rather than replaces, professional expertise.

What Homebuyers Should Know: Understanding AI’s role in underwriting helps buyers make informed decisions. Providing complete and accurate information, keeping credit in good standing, and communicating openly with your mortgage originator all improve your chances of approval. Being proactive allows AI systems to deliver the most precise results, while originators help interpret the findings and advise on next steps.

Embracing the Future of Homeownership: The rise of AI in mortgage underwriting is a positive development for homebuyers. Faster decisions, greater accuracy, and objective evaluations make the mortgage process more transparent and accessible. By partnering with knowledgeable mortgage professionals and leveraging AI tools, borrowers can confidently navigate the path to homeownership. Technology and expertise together create smarter, faster, and more reliable mortgage experiences.

Filed Under: Mortgage Tips Tagged With: All In Mortgages, Mortgage Originator, Smart Borrowing

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Scott Hill

Scott Hill


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