The PCE Index inflation data is expected to come in lower this week than the previous month’s reading. With the Federal Reserve’s rate decision set to arrive soon, the prior week was relatively light in terms of economic data.

Despite inflation continuing to trend lower, this is unlikely to have an impact on the rate decision later this week. However, it will likely spark further discussion about the current state of the economy. Although inflation remains persistent, there have also been several encouraging developments.

Economic Indicators
The US Leading Economic Index decreased by 0.2% in June 2026, driven by weak consumer expectations and lower building permits. You can read the full report details from The Conference Board regarding the index update.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, bringing the current rate to 5.96%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, bringing the current rate to 6.58%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rate at 6.37%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rate at 6.39%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 187,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The previous week landed at 209,000.

What’s Ahead
Key economic releases include the FOMC rate decision, the PCE Index, annual GDP data, and additional consumer sentiment reports.